PA Political Digest -- The No Audience debate, homophones as antonyms, the safe Congressionals & Free Silver!
Sharp analysis of PA politics and campaigns writ large for the state's political leaders
Welcome to PA Political Digest Tuesday Mid-week post — I’m your guide, GOP political consultant Christopher Nicholas.
Today in our Tuesday post we have:
Indifference ‘24, our weekly check-in on the presidential race, looks at Thursday’s debate in Atlanta
Look Ahead — today’s installment runs through the state’s 9 safe congressional seats
Did you know? examines RFK, Jr.’s polling free fall.
Indifference ‘24
Big news this week — no, not WaWa’s Hoagie-fest, though that too is a big deal.
As you may have heard, the first presidential debate is later this week, Thursday evening at 9pm in Atlanta, hosted by CNN. Unlike previous debates, there will be no audience and the candidates’ microphones will be muted when it’s not their turn to speak.
This debate is occurring 89 days earlier than any previous such debate.
As is usual in the days leading up to a debate, both sides are engaged in “expectation-setting.” Folks who for months have lambasted the opposing candidate will now sing their praises, in an attempt to boost them and thus set higher expectations for that candidate on the debate stage. This allows them to be active participants in the never-ending American past-time of raising someone up to only then (try to) raze them/knock them down.
Raise and raze are both homophones and antonyms, a neat trick.
Once the debate is over all the various analysts, etc. will return to their regular programming of denigrating the opposing candidate. I say this, of course, as someone who has participated in such debate-related shenanigans over the years.
If this Biden-Trump race was a stock, it would be described as existing in a very narrow trading range, since neither candidate has been able to sustain a wide lead or move the polling numbers much. Although Biden has made modest gains since Trump’s conviction in the hush money case in Manhattan, the state-by-state polling in swing states still favors Trump.
Hence the outsized attention on this debate – it’s sooo early and it could actually mean something! A two-fer, perhaps.
Remember that regardless of how many people watch the debate live, millions more will read about/hear about it after through media reports. So, when you’re reading those post-debate stories, pay attention to what’s in the first 4-5 graphs (paragraphs), as that will be the tale of the tape, because each side will obviously declare victory.
Much of what’s involved in a debate is trying to get more time devoted to your winning issues, as opposed to your opponent’s. For Trump, that means steering the conversation toward talk of immigration and the economy (especially inflation), while Pres. Biden will emphasize abortion and defending democracy.
Wild cards to look for: how often will either candidate mention Trump’s hush money conviction and Hunter Biden’s conviction; will Biden continue to defend the economy specifically. Will it just be a lot of each candidate interrupting the other, a la their first 2020 debate. How will Trump deal with the fact there is no audience?
Also, will either candidate offer suggestions/solutions or merely hammer away at just identifying the problems.
Neither candidate has debated since 2020, as Biden had no measurable primary opponent and Trump did not participate in any of the GOP primary debates. And that’s not a throw away line, as their combined ages equal 159 years (Trump born 6/14/46 & Biden 11/20/42).
After this, the next debate is not until September, hosted by ABC.
Also, this week it’s probable that SCOTUS will hand down their decision on presidential immunity, which will impact several of Donald Trump’s impending legal cases. Oh, and Trump said over the weekend he has chosen his VP running mate but has not yet informed that person.
Look Ahead
So far, we’ve taken a Look Ahead at what we see as the most competitive congressional districts in the state: 1/7/8/10/17. Today we feature a round up of PA’s safest congressional seats — folks who took 60% or more in their ‘22 re-election…remember, there are no open congressional seats this year, as each of our 17 House members is standing for re-election.
A bit later in the summer we will look at the remaining races, ones that could be on the cusp of being competitive, but today it is:
Four Democratic seats: 2/3/4/5 and five Republican seats: 9/11/13/14/15.
District 2: Democrat Brendan Boyle, first elected in 2014 in this Philadelphia district that is D+20. He took nearly 76% in 2022. His Republican opponent is accountant and adjunct professor Aaron Bashir.
District 3: Democrat Dwight Evans, first elected in 2016, inhabits the best congressional district for PA Dems, as this other Philly district is D+39. No GOP candidate filed to run here. He took 95% in his 2022 race.
District 4: Democrat Madeleine Dean first won her D+7 seat in 2018 that encompasses the bulk of MontCo and a slice of Berks. She took 61% in 2022, and this fall faces Republican David Winkler, a former police officer and combat veteran of both the Army and the Marines.
District 5: Democrat Mary Gay Scanlon first won election in 2018 in this D+14 DelCo-based district, which also includes small slices of MontCo and Philly. It stretches from Norristown to the south Philly sports complexes. Scanlon took 65% in ‘22 and now faces Republican Alfeia DeVaughn-Goodwin, a former Army Chaplain and police officer.
District 9: Republican Dan Meuser came to office here in 2018 and has easily held this seat, taking nearly 70% in 2022. He is opposed by Democrat Amanda Waldman, a Medicare appeals representative from Williamsport.
District 11: Republican Lloyd Smucker represents this R+13 district, which takes in all of Lancaster County and half of York County. A former state Senator, he took 61% in his ‘22 re-election, and faces Democrat Jim Atkinson, an airline pilot originally from Hawaii.
District 13: Republican John Joyce is serving his third term in this R+25 seat which stretches from Johnstown to the battlefields in Adams County. He faces Democrat Beth Farnham of Adams County, a former administrative assistant and school board member. Joyce was unopposed in ‘22.
District 14: Guy Reschenthaler, a member of House GOP leadership and a former Navy JAG Officer, represents this SWPA-based seat; he was also unopposed in ‘22 but this year faces Democrat Chris Dziados, an Army vet whose last posting was with the Space Force.
District 15: Republican Glenn “GT” Thompson, who Chairs the House Ag Committee, took 70% of the vote here in ‘22 in this R+21 seat. He squares off against Democrat Zach "Wome" Womer, a law student whose slogan is “No cross of gold/no crown of thorns.” That phrase is an ode to the Free Silver stylings espoused by William Jennings Bryan and the Democratic Party in the late 1800’s, both fighting the Gold standard in the 1896 presidential race.
Did you know?
Did you know that Independent Presidential candidate RFK, Jr. is tanking in the polls? What a shame.
We noted last week he did not qualify for the debate; the chart below illustrates his struggles, as his support has dropped by 50% since last fall, from 15 to 10%.
Please slam that Like button below, as it helps other readers find PA Political Digest. And if Thursday’s debate becomes just too much for you, consider muting your TV/laptop for a bit and following it on X/Twitter, as I sometimes do for big political events. It should be the biggest live-tweeting event of the year since the Super Bowl.