PA Political Digest -- Biden's faltering support with Black voters & Trump's hiccup with Indies + State Treasurer race Look Ahead
Sharp analysis of PA politics and campaigns writ large
Thanks again to those of you who are Liking and/or Sharing PPD — and becoming Paid subscribers for $7/month or $75/year…it’s much appreciated.
Welcome to the Tuesday mid-week post here at PPD. I’m your guide, veteran GOP political consultant Christopher Nicholas.
For you today:
Our Indifference ‘24 item explains, using polling and word clouds, why we coined such a moniker to describe the presidential race
Look Ahead -- Yes, we elect a State Treasurer this year
Did you know? looks at PA K-12 educational achievement, or lack of.
Indifference ‘24
According to Pew Research, part of the Pew Charitable Trusts, 25% of voters currently dislike both Pres. Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
They are often referred to as double haters, though that may be a bit harsh. This same figure stood at 20% in 2016, with Trump vs. Hillary Clinton. But you can see why I named our roundup of news on the presidential campaign Indifference ’24.
And FYI, the polls these ratings were based on were conducted before Trump’s hush money convictions.
*Here’s some fun with word clouds:
*Courtesy of JL Partners polling firm.
A week after polling laid bare Biden’s troubles with Hispanic voters comes another round of polls showing he has the same issue with Black voters. USA Today/Suffolk University ran polls specifically with Black voters, here and in MI. In PA, Biden today earns support from just 56% while Trump gets 11%. 45’s support lies mainly among Black men, rather than women. The balance of voters go to 3rd party candidates or are undecided; Biden’s 56% support is way down from the 92% he received here in ‘20, according to Exit polls.
So for those keeping track at home, Biden is faltering with younger voters, Black voters and Hispanics.
Trump is polling right about where his favorable rating is, so it appears he is, for now, at the top limits of his support among Black voters here. But post-conviction polling does show that “21 percent of Independents said the [Trump] conviction made them less likely to support Trump and that it would be an important factor in their vote.”
Yes, PA elects a State Treasurer — Our Look Ahead
I’d bet fewer than half of PA voters realize we actually elect our State Treasurer, and even more would wonder why we do that.
It’s easy to understand why we’d want an independent elected Auditor General (around since 1850), and same for Attorney General. But we didn’t actually elect an Attorney General until 1980 (LeRoy Zimmerman) – before that it was appointed by the governor.
The Treasurer’s office safeguards and distributes state funds, returns unclaimed property to citizens and oversees the PA 529 college savings plan.
In the modern era the Treasurer runs in the presidential year along with the other state row offices – Attorney General and Auditor General.
To coin a phrase from Winston Churchill, in my view, the Attorney General’s office has, politically, always been “first among equals.” (The former British Prime Minister used that phrase to describe the difference between the PM and the rest of his cabinet ministers.)
Suffice to say that neither the Office of Treasurer nor the campaign for State Treasurer garners much attention from voters. That said, the 2020 race between Democratic incumbent Treasurer Joe Torsella and GOP challenger Stacy Garrity was the biggest upset the Commonwealth had seen for many years.
Torsella, an independently wealthy businessman from MontCo (sound familiar? So was another former Democrat Treasurer Rob McCord — listen to our podcast on his corruption problems) greatly outspent Garrity in the ’20 election overall, and probably by more than 10:1 when it came to voter contact spending specifically.
Despite that, in the pandemic year which featured the new Vote by Mail (VBM) system, Garrity beat Torsella by less than one point, 48.7-47.9%, +52,546 votes.
She bested Trump among VBM by +45,625 votes. Overall, Torsella ran nearly 219,000 votes behind Joe Biden, while Garrity ran about 86k behind Trump. She won 55 counties to Torsella’s 12.
The new VBM law also discontinued straight ticket voting, a hallmark of Democratic campaign outreach and GOTV here. That helped both Garrity and DeFoor win their races.
Let’s look at Philly’s 2020 vote, unique in the state as it’s both a city and a county.
Philly 2020 State Treasurer
Garrity 17.4% and 122,763 votes
Torsella 79.6% and 561,438 votes
Trump 17.9% and 132,740 votes
Biden 81.4 and 603,790 votes
So Torsella trailed Biden in Philly by 42.3k votes while Garrity only trailed Trump there by 9.977 votes. In percentage terms, Torsella ran 1.8% behind Biden's % in Philly while Garrity got just 1/2% less than Trump.
Overall, Garrity ran ahead of GOP Attorney General nominee Heather Heidelbaugh but behind Auditor General nominee/winner Tim DeFoor.
So this year Garrity, a pioneer in both the powdered metals industry and the military (she retired as a full Colonel in the Army Reserve and was awarded 2 Bronze Stars during her three overseas deployments) faces substance abuse and mental health counselor Erin McClelland, Democrat of Allegheny County. Garrity hails from Bradford County.
McClelland won an upset victory in the Democratic primary over the endorsed candidate for Treasurer, State Rep. Ryan Bizzarro of Erie.
McClelland ran for Congress in 2014 and 2016 in the 12th District and had some messy paperwork issues regarding her campaign finance filings, not the best look for an aspiring State Treasurer.
But a la Garrity vs. Torsella, McClelland was greatly outspent in the Democratic primary and still triumphed easily.
Understanding the race won’t garner much attention or headlines, McClelland let loose a Hail Mary recently, stating that she would not sign checks/move $ connected to school choice vouchers if they were signed into law by the governor, unless absolutely forced to by PA Supreme Court.
Garrity rightly pointed out that the Treasurer does not make those types of policy decisions for the state, rather the Gov and Legislature handle that. Regardless of your opinion on school choice, it’s more than a bit disconcerting to hear a candidate for Treasurer say they won’t move money for a program they personally disagree with...What program would next be on their personal chopping block?
Why would she do that? Obviously to get some publicity and some campaign contributions, and perhaps as a way of auditioning for support from groups that traditionally support down ballot Democrats.
McClelland has also criticized Garrity for attending a Jan. 5, 2021 rally in Harrisburg where she joined other Republicans in questioning the 2020 election results.
Given that neither candidate has shown themselves to be a prolific fundraiser, and that this race is least likely to generate significant voter interest, it looks to be the lowest profile state-wide race in 2024.
Let’s look at the political triangle (the 3 criteria) that determines the outcome of elections:
The District – PA still has a slight Democratic edge in registration, but the GOP is gaining. Even.
Candidates – Garrity is the incumbent and will raise more money than McClelland, plus she has a better life story/background. Edge to Garrity.
Political Environment — The top of the ticket looks as tight as ever, but remember that Garrity won in 2020 as Biden was winning. Garrity has used her time in office to build out her political operation. Slight Edge to Garrity.
Did you know…
Did you know about the mixed results in the newest data from the PA Partnership for Children? In the Education category, three of their four metrics moved negative.
Notably even more PA 4th graders were not proficient in reading, up to 66% now, plus fewer 8th graders were proficient in math. Slightly more high schoolers graduated on time though. Go here to see the complete set of charts on these 2024 Kids Count report.
These numbers are particularly relevant now as PA Dems want to spend a huge amount of our state budget to even further increase K-12 spending. It’s easy to throw more $ at this problem, that’s what we’ve been doing for a long time. Accountability…not so much.
Errata
As I have for many years, I am available to give an Election 2024 Preview presentation in person or via Zoom to your trade group, association, etc. Please reply to this email for details, including pricing and availability.
Follow me on Twitter if you hang out there. See you Friday. Thanks.