PA Political Digest - The debate on Debates rages on, has polarization transformed the democratic process? plus what's an Out county?
Sharp analysis of PA politics and campaigns writ large.
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Welcome to the Tuesday Mid-Week post here at PPD. I’m your guide, GOP political consultant Christopher Nicholas.
For you today we have:
Indifference ‘24 looks at the on-going debate over debates and the reason for the siting of an upcoming Trump rally
We explain what we mean by an ‘Out’ county as we continue our Look Ahead series on the state’s TV markets
Did you know America has experienced increased polarization in the past several decades? Unless you’ve been hiding under a rock…
In Extras, down at the bottom, an ad for Cong. Susan Wild in the Lehigh Valley kicks up a little dust with the FOP and Tulsi Gabbard resurfaces.
Indifference ‘24
So, if you can believe it, the presidential candidates are arguing over whether their microphones will be on during the entire debate, or just when it’s their turn to speak. (no paywall) Again, not an Onion headline.
During the Hot mess in Hotlanta debate, it was negotiated by both Team Biden and Team Trump that their mics would only be on when it was their time to speak. That seemed to work fine, and no one mentioned it during or after the debate, as the focus was on what turned out to be President Biden’s career-ending performance.
The Trump campaign agreed to the upcoming Sept. 10 debate when their opponent was still Biden, and the terms of engagement were the same. It’s not clear when or who changed things, or attempted to change them, but here we are.
To my eye, the Harris campaign decided to try to bait Trump, to see if they could get a round of stories about him potentially bowing out of the debate.
For their part the Democratic ticket relaxed over the weekend and did not do any events.
Team Trump announced over the weekend that they would be rallying in Johnstown on Friday. (no paywall)
Perhaps no county better represents the rapid change in politics in (as I call it) Greater non-urban SW PA than Cambria County. An aging and declining population that turned fairly quickly from a reliably Democratic area to the opposite.
The Philly burbs get a lot of attention for their swing to the Dems, but the opposite in the west never received as much attention. Those burbs are closer to the state’s largest metro area and are home to many more people than the Cambria counties of the world.
For example, Al Gore took 50% in Cambria County in 2000, and Barack Obama got 40% in 2008. In 2020 Biden got just 31% of the vote. What a decline for PA Dems. Hence, it’s become a much more important region for GOTV, etc. for the GOP.
Two more examples…in August 2016 long-time Democratic State Sen. John Wozniak, who had been in the Legislature since 1981 (the year I graduated from CB East High School), left the ticket there in the 35th Senate District after winning a contested primary. He did that so he wouldn’t lose the general election that
The Dems found a loyal county row officer to serve as their sacrificial lamb in November, who promptly lost with 38% of the vote to Republican Wayne Langerholc.
Wozniak said he resigned from the Democratic ticket as he wanted to spend more time with his family and to consider opportunities in the private sector. He denied rumors that Gov. Tom Wolf had a job for him, though the next year the governor did appoint him to the PA Turnpike Commission.
In 2014 Republican Jim Rigby ran for state rep in the 71st District in Cambria County and got 48%. Another GOP’er ran in 2016 and lost with 41% of the vote. In 2018 Rigby ran again, took 52%, and finally beat incumbent Democrat Bryan Barbin. The next cycle, 2020, the Democrats couldn’t field a candidate there against Rigby.
Johnstown is loyal Trump Country…hence the rally. That media market, as we noted in our Look Ahead detailing it a couple weeks ago, is the Trumpiest in the state.
The rally will be held at War Memorial arena, home to Johnstown’s minor league hockey team, which was the backdrop for much of the very funny 1977 hockey film, Slap Shot, starring Paul Newman. And no word yet on whether retired Johnstown-area TV reporter/marketing consultant/PPD reader Jon McClintock (who played a reporter in that film) will attend the rally. The Hanson brothers though, have a conflict and can’t make it.
The Washington Post has an interesting look at the Indian diaspora, datelined in Bensalem, Bucks County, with an estimate that there are about 100-120k Indian American voters in PA.
“Both Republicans and Democrats face big challenges in reaching these voters, in part because they speak a multitude of languages — including Hindi, Tamil, Gujarati, Urdu, Punjabi and Kannada. Many Indians’ favorite method of communication is WhatsApp group chats, not Facebook or Instagram, making them potentially harder to reach. There are also few centralized spaces to reach the diverse Indian American community in person, because places of worship run the gamut: temples, mosques, gurdwaras and churches.”
Look Ahead
Before we turn our attention to the 2 largest TV markets in the state – Philly and Pittsburgh – this week we will take a look at the 6 PA counties that do not get in-state TV. I refer to them as the ‘Out’ counties, as they get their local TV from markets out of the state, just as people in south Jersey get their TV via Philly.
The 6 counties and the actual media market they’re in:
Pike / NYC Fulton / Wash., DC Mercer / Youngstown, OH
Tioga / Elmira, NY McKean & Potter / Buffalo, NY
So these counties normally get bypassed when it comes to media buys, and thus voters do not see any ads on broadcast TV, though they can perhaps see some cable TV ads that are part of a state-wide or national ad buy. In 2006, in a state senate race that contained Mercer County, I did buy Youngstown, OH radio for our client, Sen. Bob Robbins. His district that cycle had the distinction of being the only such state senate seat to spill across 3 TV markets: Erie, Pittsburgh and Youngstown.
These counties are places that you have to want to go to, as you’re not usually driving through them on your way someplace else…and they remind us just how large PA is — more than 46,000 square miles.
McKean, Potter and Tioga are contiguous to each other, from west to east, and like many of our counties up along the NY state border, often contain more deer than people. Mercer is the only county in this group with a population above 100,000.
The registration here is 59/27.5/13.5% R/D/I
Together these counties have 163,415 voters, about 2.1% of the state’s voters. All of them, except Pike, lost people since 2020, according to Census Bureau figures. So, despite Pike’s growth, as a group this region lost 1,132 people between 2020 and 2023.
More than 83% of the area in these counties is classified as Rural, with the remaining listed as suburban…so there are no urban areas in these counties, according to the Census Bureau.
That seems odd, as the south west/south central side of Mercer County, known as the Shenango Valley, contains three municipalities classified as cities: Hermitage, Sharon and Farrell. The Shenango Valley region overall consists of 10 towns clustered around the PA/OH border – 8 in PA and 2 in OH.
With nearly 11,000 voters, Hermitage City is the largest municipality in the Out counties.
Did you know
Did you know America’s been dealing with increased partisanship lately? Well, of course you have.
Politics seems to dominate our lives more and more, and leak into more and more of our lives as people increasingly sort into ‘Tribes’ most concerned with 100% loyalty and rather problem-solving. And it’s not confined to just one party, or ideology either.
Knowable Magazine has an in-depth story about it:(no paywall)
“While there is no one explanation for why countries worldwide are fraying into extremes, recent findings suggest a common denominator: namely, that the key driver of polarization is more about emotion and identity than policy positions — a phenomenon known as “affective polarization.” Researchers are increasingly focusing on how people’s emotional and identity-based attachments to their political groups fuel hostility toward the opposition.
“This shift in understanding emphasizes that the divide isn’t merely about differing opinions on issues. It is deeply rooted in the perception of political opponents as threats to one’s way of life and core values.”
Americans also “severely misestimate [sic] the extent of ideological extremism” of the opposing party’s voters, according to a study in The Journal of Politics.
I explain that this way: people believe their friend group/region is much more heterogeneous/diverse (and worldly) than it really is, while assuming the rest of the country is much more homogeneous/the same than it actually is.
The entire article is worth a read and again, there’s no paywall.
Extras
An ad made by a SuperPAC on behalf of Cong. Susan Wild’s campaign has been slammed by the local FOP as it purports to show an actual police officer boosting the 3-term Democrat from the Lehigh Valley’s 7th District…but in reality the person vouching for her is just an auxiliary officer, a la the fire police. (no paywall)
As of today, the only Indie candidates on the ballot here for president are Jill Stein for the Greens and Chase Oliver for the Libertarians.
A doctor who approved more than 3,000 medical Marijuana certifications in just 1 year (that’s about 12 per day each and every weekday over a year’s time) later admitted to his own drug and alcohol problem. After rehab and 4 years of sobriety he tried to reacquire the state license needed to again approve such certifications, but was denied by the Dept. of Health. He now says his views on medical marijuana have changed and it should be a “last resort.” (no paywall)
Just days after being endorsed by RFK, Jr., who ended his presidential campaign Friday (at least in 10 swing states), Trump yesterday picked up the backing of former Cong. Tulsi Gabbard, Democrat of Hawaii.