PA Political Digest - - The campaign trail catches up with everyone & 3 Dems use AI to answer questionnaire
Sharp analysis of PA politics and campaigns writ large
Welcome to PPD - I’m your guide, GOP political consultant Christopher Nicholas.
For you today, we have:
Indifference ‘24 highlights some statements from those on the presidential campaign trail, but are they gaffes
Did you know a Democrat turned Republican nixed the plan to change how a state allocates its Electoral College votes
In Extras, down at the bottom, will our electeds accept the November results and some Lancaster County Democrats used ChatGPT.
Indifference ‘24
Eventually, the campaign trail catches up with everyone…
Speaking with Oprah at a campaign event last week, Kamala Harris said: “I’m a gun owner...If someone breaks in my house, they’re getting shot, sorry. I probably should not have said that. Hahaha! My staff will deal with that later. Hahaha!”
Donald Trump posted this message to PA voters on social media: “Your Automobile Insurance is up 73% — VOTE FOR TRUMP, I’LL CUT THAT NUMBER IN HALF! “(his capitalization)
Car insurance though, is regulated at the state level.
Tim Walz, at a rally in PA last week, said: “We can’t afford four more years of this...” apparently forgetting who’s currently running the country/serving as VP.
Trump now vows to reinstate the SALT tax deduction that he eliminated in his 2017 tax reform bill whilst Harris wants to give every (new) small biz $50k and first-time home buyer 25k. And the deficit continues to skyrocket - no wonder.
Since he began running for president in 2016, 48%-49% has seemingly been both Trump’s floor and ceiling here. His current poll results have reinforced that. In 2016 he received 48.6% of the vote while carrying the state. He took 48.8% in 2020 while losing the state. Is Kamala Harris settling into the same type of rigid zone?
Joe Biden improved on Hillary Clinton’s results here mainly because the small 3rd party candidate vote from ‘16 collapsed and solidified around the Scranton native in ‘20.
Clinton carried 11 counties in 2016 while Joe Biden carried those 11 plus 2 more in his 2020 win here. What are the 2 counties?* Answer at the bottom in Extras…
A new national poll from NBC dropped over the weekend and showed Harris with a 49-44% lead over Trump. Their last such poll, back in July, had Trump up 2 points. Trump is +12 with men while Harris is +21 with women. Again, all the usual caveats about national polls…
Trump participated in an agriculture-related round table yesterday in Westmoreland County and later visited a grocery store in Kittanning before ending his SWPA trip with a rally at IUP in the evening.
Harris is expected back in Pittsburgh tomorrow (Wed.) to unveil some or all of her economic plan. So both candidates in SWPA on back to back days.
Did you know?
A Democrat turned Republican state senator in Nebraska has put the kibosh on a nascent plan there to change back to a winner take all format allocation of their Electoral College votes. Their ‘non-partisan’ unicameral Legislature has 33 Republicans, 15 Democrats and one progressive who is an Independent.
That Senator said he would support a possible Constitutional change to this for 2028 but would not vote for a change now. The state will continue to allocate 2 of its votes to the winner of the state (Trump) and also 1 vote to each winner of their 3 congressional districts. The 2nd District, though represented by a Republican, has been won before by a Democrat (Biden and Obama). So this is a minor potential win for Harris, as she now has a shot to win 1 Electoral vote there, which could be crucial to preventing a tie in the Electoral College.
There are 6 main TV markets in NE, but a campaign only needs to buy the Omaha market to target NE-2.
Before switching parties earlier this year, State Sen. Mike McDonnell was censured by Nebraska Democrats after “backing abortion restrictions and legislation restricting some health care for minors who are transgender.” He said when he switched that he was not in favor of changing how their Electoral votes are allocated. (no paywall)
Extras
Will PA’s elected federal officeholders accept the results of the election? Both Senators, all the state’s Democratic House members and Republican Brian Fitzpatrick said Yes. The remaining House members did not respond.
Kudos to Lancaster Newspaper Group. They ran candidate-submitted answers to their questionnaire through an online tool designed to identify AI-generated language. Three Democrats were found to have used ChatGPT. One, Lynn McCleary, running for State House in HD-98, when asked about her use of AI to complete the questionnaire, asked, “That’s not allowed?” Nope, it shouldn’t be, as voters are electing people, not bots, to the State House.
A group of political leaders, including former GOP Gov. Tom Corbett and Secretary of State Al Schmidt, participated in a symposium recently in Harrisburg to stress that our elections are safe and secure.
Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited Scranton over the weekend, specifically the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant where the much-needed 155mm rocket shells are made. The plant supplies U.S. needs and has also become a key supplier to Ukraine’s effort to push back against Russia’s unprovoked war there. (no paywall)
*Erie and Northampton are the 2 counties that Biden carried in 2020 that Hillary Clinton did not in 2016.