PA Political Digest - Someone will actually win PA, right? + Michael Smerconish joins us for 5 Questions With...

Sharp analysis of PA politics and campaigns writ large

Nov 01, 2024

Welcome to the Friday End of Week edition of PPD - I’m your guide, GOP political consultant Christopher Nicholas.

For you today, we have:

Did you notice the changing demographics of the 2 party’s coalitions are really coming into focus
5 Questions With features POTUS radio/CNN host Michael Smerconish — like PPD, a native of Bucks County
This Week in PA welcomes Secretary of State Al Schmidt and former GOP congressman Jim Gerlach
In Extras, down at the bottom, we look at the divergent approaches taken by the two candidates for Attorney General, and highlight the role of music and masculinity in this campaign cycle.

Did you notice?

Did you notice that Kamala Harris is doing better with white voters while Donald Trump is doing better with Black voters, both in PA and across the country?

Now for sure, most Black voters are still backing Harris while most white voters are supporting Trump. But as the coalitions within each party are evolving and molting, it’s clear that more upper educated/income white voters, especially women, are moving from the GOP toward Harris and the Democrats.

And more blue collar/no collar minority men are moving toward the GOP and Trump. Is class now out-weighing race when it comes to the push/pull of political decision-making?

The great thing about politics: if you don't like what’s going on…just wait a bit as it's always changing.

A poll conducted only in PA’s 8th Congressional District showed some good news for GOP Senate candidate Dave McCormick. This is the NEPA congressional seat, and contains all of Lackawanna County (Scranton) and 85% of Luzerne County’s voters — including Wilkes Barre.

(Remember that Luzerne County is home to more people than Lackawanna County… but Scranton — in Lackawanna — has a larger population than Wilkes-Barre — in Luzerne County.)

This poll focused on the hot congressional race there between incumbent Democrat Matt Cartwright and his GOP challenger Rob Bresnahan. In that survey they also asked a question on the senate race, and in this district — Casey’s hometown area — he and McCormick were tied at 44% each...

If that holds, it’s bad news for Casey. The poll, from Inside Elections/Noble Predictive showed Cartwright up by a 50-43% margin in his race.

Speaking of polls…the last poll from Marist College show both the VP and Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. leading their Republican challengers by a 50-48% margin, well within the margin of error for the poll, which interviewed 1,400 Likely Voters here. (no paywall)

Harris leads by 8% among women while Trump leads by 4% with men. “Harris (63%) outpaces Trump (35%) among likely voters who say they have already voted. Trump (54%) receives majority support against Harris (44%) among those who have yet to vote.”

The most recent CNN poll had the presidential race tied at 48%-all.

Remember you can hire me to give an Election 2024 Recap presentation to your trade group, firm or organization. I have a couple on the books already. They take about 45-90 minutes and I can do it in-person or via Zoom. Just reply to this email for details and pricing. Thanks.

If this election will be known for one thing, it could be for the shift of Election Day GOP voters into early voters, either by mail, or increasingly, via in-person mail voting. The long lines of people going to their court house to vote early is mainly because the GOP and its allied groups have been pushing more of us to do so. (PPD will still vote the old fashioned way, on Tuesday.)

Voting early, but in-person, cuts the USPS out of the equation, which eliminates some of the qualms Republicans have about this method of exercising their franchise. In-person early voters have their ballot handed to them by a county worker, and then hand it back to the same once they’ve complete it - no mailing necessary.

Will it make a difference this year? Too soon to know for sure as we can’t yet tell if this shift is bringing more Republicans to the polls…or just shifting them from Tuesday voters to early ones. It will pay dividends in future elections, as our coalition becomes more populated by less active voters.

No surprise but the VP will wrap up her campaign Monday with rallies in Allentown and Philadelphia. Trump will rally in Reading and both candidates plan appearances that day in the Steel City. (no paywall)
Over the course of this year we’ve written tens of thousands of words about PA politics and covered the hot races. A note now though on the state legislative races, which tend to break later, especially in the House.

Republicans hold a 28-22 lead in the state Senate. Democrats have talked a good game and repeated ad nauseam that they can win the 3 seats needed to create a tie there, though it does not look likely today. In that case, Lt. Gov. Austin Davis would become the busiest guy in the Capitol, breaking the deadlock and giving control to the Dems.

They are sure to pick up one seat, the 15th, in Dauphin County, due to how redistricting turned it into such a Democratic district. But their efforts to beat an incumbent — in the 37th and 49th — don’t appear to be bearing fruit. Plus they need to defend the 5th District, in NE Philly, and keep their open seat in the 45th (open Brewster seat). Looks to be a 28-22 again for the GOP or perhaps 27-23.

The House, after what seems to have been a million and one special elections, is still 102-101 for the Democrats. Ground zero here appears to be Bucks County, with several hot races for both sides.

It’s hard to imagine a lot of incumbent Republicans who survived the tough redistricting AND the Shapiro landslide in ‘22, losing now. So it seems the best bet is a range of +/- 2-3 seats for either party.

Dems have (again) bet big on the abortion issue, even though there is no move afoot to change PA’s abortion law, written in 1991.

Shapiro bet big here himself, as he gave $1 million to House Democrats - and just about a third of that to Senate Dems. State Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta, the Democrat nominee for Auditor General, got just $25k from Shapiro.

Finally, remember back late last year and earlier this year, when pols of both parties were lamenting the fact that our presidential primary (in April) was too "late" for it to make a difference…and that PA would be overlooked and ignored by the parties and the presidential candidates. Remember that? Yea, good times...

5 Questions With…

Bucks County's Michael Smerconish is an accomplished political commentator who hosts a daily show on Sirius/XM's POTUS radio as well as a weekly TV show on CNN, Saturday mornings at 9am. He is the author of 6 books. I've known Michael since college -- back then he had hair and was more conservative than me...but times change. His father, the late Walt Smerconish, was my guidance counselor at Holicong Jr. High School, a terrific man very well suited for that arduous job.

This Week in Pennsylvania

Our final show before Election Day welcomes Secretary of State Al Schmidt, as well as former GOP congressman Jim Gerlach, who now chairs the Keystone Free Enterprise Fund and works with Pennsylvania Democracy Defense Project.

Later, Democratic analyst Brittany Crampsie and I give our predictions in the races for president, senate and attorney general.

Watch TWIP Sunday across the state:

Philly Phl17 1:30pm

Pittsburgh KDKA+ Ch. 19 Noon

Harrisburg ABC27News 10am

Scranton WBRE Ch. 28 11am

Johnstown WTAJ Ch. 10 6:30am

Erie JET-TV Ch. 24 10am

You may also stream the show here — the new show loads around Noon on Sundays.

Extras

The differences between the 2 candidates for Attorney General are stark…just examine their websites for proof.

Democrat Eugene DePasquale: The word “crime” does not appear on his homepage!On his Issues page, “Cracking down on crime” is the 6th item mentioned there.

Republican Dave Sunday: “Tough on Crime” is the first thing you see on his homepage, in the top left.

DePasquale, who teaches law at Pitt but does not practice it, touts his experience with complex investigations (his term) while he was Auditor General to explain why he’d be the better choice for Attorney General.

Sunday, a career prosecutor, has an easier and more direct message, a more meat and potatoes theme about keeping you and your families safe. Do voters want someone with experience carrying out complex investigations or one with proven experience in the court room, prosecuting criminals and overseeing a team of prosecutors who also do that?

Sunday and his allies have greatly outspent DePasquale and his allies on TV. And Gov. Josh Shapiro, who spread a lot of $ around this year, only gave DePasquale $100,000. Shapiro reported raising $9 million so far this year…

There’s been a lot written, and many songs listened to, and debated, in this presidential campaign. Singers have a history of using their voices — both musically and not — to wade into presidential politics.

“Singer and performer Al Jolson was among the first stars to stump for a presidential candidate, endorsing Warren Harding for president in 1920. Then came Frank Sinatra for Franklin D. Roosevelt and John F. Kennedy, Sammy Davis Jr. for Richard M. Nixon. (free gift link)

“Trump has also received the endorsements of artists from a variety of musical genres including Kanye West, Jason Aldean, DaBaby, and Kodak Black to name a few, according to, according to Billboard.”

Harris has been endorsed by Taylor Swift and Beyonce, and The Boss played at a GOTV concert for her last week.

PEW Research examined the view of men and masculinity recently, and found: “25% say people in the United States have mostly negative views of men who are ‘manly or masculine.’ Majorities of Americans say most people in the U.S. don’t place enough value on men who are caring, open about their emotions, soft-spoken or affectionate.

“Democrats are more likely than Republicans to say people don’t value men with these traits enough.” (no paywall)

Welcome back to Republican State Rep. Joe Kerwin, “a two-term state lawmaker from Dauphin County [who] has returned from a 10-month deployment to Eastern Africa just in time to stand for re-election for a third two-year term of office.” Thank you for your service.

Publication schedule:

A special Sunday, Nov. 3 edition will be our overall Election Preview, including my predictions, and will detail where you can find me on TV/radio on Election Day/Night, Nov. 5th.

We will publish a mini edition on Tuesday, Election Day, and run a full issue on Wednesday with the results as we know them then. I may publish Thursday, but probably only for PAID subscribers, and then our regular Friday edition.

Thanks again for slamming that Like button below - it helps. Enjoy your weekend…only a few more days of TV ads to go…