PA Political Digest -- Shapiro retools after Harris' stiff arm and PA settles into a new normal + Who sells all those TV ads we see?
Sharp analysis of PA politics and campaigns writ large
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Welcome to the Friday End of Week post here at PPD, and what a week it’s been. I’m your host, Republican political consultant Christopher Nicholas. This is my 40th year as a working GOP political consultant and week after week this summer PA has been treated to a stunning array of political theater.
Will it end? Who knows…but could it perhaps pause for a couple days?
For you today, we have:
Did you notice looks at our political scene now as Shapiro-mania subsides and we here in PA realize it’s now back to the same old grind…what’s the aftermath look like (Clean up on Aisle 4)
5 Questions With… features a man selling all those political TV ads we are seeing now, who explains some of the ins and outs of political advertising and the fact that so far 84% of the ads here have been via Independent Expenditure groups
Backstage at This Week In Pennsylvania the guest is former Democratic Congressman Patrick Murphy, who roomed with Tim Walz whilst both were in the House
Our Extras, at the end of this post, showcases the decline of newspapers here with a chart, a Happy B-day and a less happy anniversary, plus a presidential debate update.
Did you notice?
Did you notice a-l-l of the various CYA articles (from all angles) on the near miss by Shapiro of becoming Kamala Harris’ VP designee?
Since Shapiro got the stiff arm, it’s come to light that while he had some detailed questions for Harris about what his duties would actually be as her potential VP, MN Gov. Tim Walz assured her he didn’t want to run for president himself, giving off big-time Just happy to be here vibes.
In a Patriot-News article yesterday, I made the point that while Shapiro’s stock may be up among national Democrats, I think the bloom is off his rose here, so to speak, and that could make things harder for him at home come 2026. (gift link should be paywall-free)
Nicholas said he also expects Shapiro will face more questions about when he learned about the 2023 sexual harassment allegations against his former top legislative aide, Mike Vereb, his response to it, and who insisted on the non-disclosure agreements within the $295,000 taxpayer-paid settlement.
And he said that as much as Shapiro’s national profile has risen, in the right circumstances that could make it a little easier for a Republican candidate to court out-of-state donors in the 2026 gubernatorial race.
In the story, Democratic strategist James Carville disagrees, as he thinks it’s all good for Shapiro now moving forward and notes that in 8 years Shapiro will be the age Walz is today. Presidential aspirants are always calculating how old they will be in 4/8 years… (The podcast Carville co-hosts, Politics War Room, is worth checking out, fyi.)
I would agree with Carville, and others, that Shapiro gave a stemwinder of a speech Tuesday evening as he warmed up the crowd in Philly at the debut rally of the Harris/Walz ticket. Just hours after not getting Harris’ VP nod, he was clearly trying to give Dems, et al, buyer's remorse…and he also went out of his way at the end of his remarks to explicitly say he was proud of his faith. To me, that tells us at least Shapiro himself thought that was an issue in this process.
And being the smart politico he is, after his speech to the main crowd at the Liacouras Center on Temple’s campus, he made a point to walk over and talk to the folks in the overflow area.
Shapiro later ruled out accepting a Cabinet appointment from Harris and said he would finish his term as governor (and presumably run for re-election).
Speaking of Carville, he also took a moment this week to go after our Jr. Senator, John Fetterman, for being a backstabber, and vowed to get after him about it post-November: Fetterman, he said, “must be dealt with in real terms.” FoxNews.com explains here. (no paywall)
You may remember that Fetterman’s aides made sure to inform Team Harris before her selection of Walz that the Senator thought Shapiro was too ambitious to be her VP candidate. In a carefully worded statement yesterday, Fetterman tried to walk that back by saying he “never directed” anyone to dime out the governor. Well then…
The story we ran on this in Tuesday’s Mid-week post garnered the most clicks of any article we’ve ever linked to here…so you know, I’m just trying to feed the beast again today…
Now for a run down on some of the many Shapiro stories…
SpotlightPA has a good recap of the new things we’ve learned about Shapiro recently. (no paywall)
Shortly after the pick, Lowman Henry from the Lincoln Institute made a good point about VP selections in a piece for RealClear Pennsylvania:
“Aside from selecting a running mate who is capable of assuming the presidency on a moment’s notice, the first and foremost qualification of a vice-presidential candidate is to do no harm. It became clear that while Shapiro may have given a boost to Harris’ chances of winning battleground Pennsylvania, he would have enraged key Democratic constituencies.
“And while Minnesota likely would have ended up in the Democratic column anyway, Governor Tim Walz is a plain vanilla candidate who brings little or no baggage to the ticket.” (no paywall)
And this from the NYTimes on what role Shapiro’s religion may have played in all of this:
“Vice President Kamala Harris faced a difficult choice when it came to Israel and her running mate: Selecting Gov. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania could mollify many Jewish voters and other centrists over a subject that has bedeviled the Biden-Harris administration for nearly a year, Israel’s war in Gaza. It could also inflame the left, which has been protesting the administration for months.
“Ms. Harris’s selection of Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota likely avoided fueling the Gaza demonstrations. But it could come at the expense of reassuring the center. And it may well have created a new point of friction with Jewish voters leery of a lurch to the left from the Democratic Party…
“This is a very, very fraught time; it’s not just hand-wringing,” said Rabbi Moshe Hauer, the executive vice president for the Orthodox Union, which represents Judaism’s orthodox wing. “We always worry about antisemitism on both ends. But our greater worry right now is that antisemitism on the left seems to be far more influential on a major party than the antisemitism on the right.” (Gift link should get through their paywall)
And the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette had a new angle yesterday from Shapiro:
“Shapiro addressed allegations of antisemitism within the Democratic base and hinted that he and presidential nominee Kamala Harris mutually decided that he would not serve as her running mate as he visited a United Mine Workers of America facility in Greene County Thursday for a ceremonial bill signing.”
Shapiro went on to say that both he and Harris had “deeply personal” decisions to make and that “In the end, it was important to me to be able to chart my own course.”
For his part, Donald Trump held a press conference yesterday in which he praised Sen. JD Vance, and lambasted both Walz and Harris on immigration, the economy and the general state of affairs in the nation.
If nothing else, his long presser shined a light on the fact that Harris has not held a press conference/availability since Joe Biden left the race. Today Harris said she wanted to hold her first press conference before the end of the month…so sometime in the next 22 days! Besides that press conference, Trump has been off the campaign trail this week, save for a rally he has tonight (Friday) in Montana — like PA, home to a hot U.S. Senate race.
And battle lines have been drawn around Walz’s military service in the MN National Guard:
— During his 2006 race for Congress, did he embellish his actual rank at retirement
— Did he abandon his unit before their forward deployment to the Middle East in order to run that campaign?
For now, most of the sturm en drang on this topic is echoing the contours of whatever cable news channel is discussing it…whether there’s any there there remains to be seen, but Team Trump has at least successfully opened a new front in their fight with Harris. And eagle-eyed reporters noted that on Thursday the Harris for President web site did in fact change how it described Walz’s rank in the Guard.
Polls in the race for president, both here and nationally continue to show momentum for Harris/Walz. And other battle ground states have been moved from Lean Trump to Toss Up status.
5 Questions With…
Our 5 Questions With… segment today talks with a person tasked with selling all those political ads we’re now seeing on TV screens across the state: Rob Saylor. He has worked in TV sales since graduating from Oklahoma State Univ. He is the General Sales Manager at ABC27 in Harrisburg. Previously he worked at WGAL-TV in Lancaster and WMAR-TV in Baltimore. And note, the FCC is the Federal Communications Commission.