PA Political Digest -- Rhetoric ramps up, Dems try to stiffen on immigration as VP hopefuls prepare to spar + Do you have a Dem name or a GOP one?
Sharp analysis of PA politics and campaigns writ large
Thanks to PA Manufacturers Assoc. (PMA) for sponsoring today’s edition of PA Political Digest…
More than 128 people are dead, and 600+ are missing, in the southeastern United States in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene. Western North Carolina, notably the greater Asheville metro area, was especially hard hit. Here is a Donate link from the Western NC Red Cross web site if you’d like to help with a financial contribution.
Welcome to the Tuesday Mid-week post here at PPD. I’m your guide, GOP political consultant Christopher Nicholas.
For you today we have:
Indifference ‘24 looks at Kamala Harris’ changing rhetoric on the border and Trump’s incendiary language on her supposed mental state
In our Look Ahead we examine a stealth ad on immigration from PA-10 Democratic nominee Janelle Stelson that sounds Trumpian at times
Did you know some names lean Republican while others lean Democratic
In Extras, at the bottom, a former president celebrates a very special birthday while a former state senator gets a deserved promotion.
Indifference ‘24
Harris used her speech at a remote spot on the southern border, after 5pm east coast time last Friday, to begin to harden herself on the issue of immigration. As the NYTimes wrote:
“On her first trip to the southern border as the Democratic presidential nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris delivered one of her party’s toughest speeches on immigration and border policy in a generation. Even as she did, she tried to paint former President Donald J. Trump as a feckless chaos agent without the ability to deliver the hard-line results he has promised. (gift article)
“Ms. Harris vowed to carry on President Biden’s crackdown on asylum and to impose order on the southern border, demonstrating how much the politics of immigration have shifted for Democrats. Just one presidential cycle ago, Ms. Harris and most other candidates in the party’s primary race had promised to decriminalize illegal border crossings.”
I’d bet we see some of the video from her visit in upcoming TV ads.
Trump at his Erie rally on Sunday: “Crooked Joe Biden became mentally impaired, but lying Kamala Harris, honestly, I believe she was born that way. There’s something wrong with Kamala, and I just don’t know what it is, but there is definitely something missing.”
The pastor who invited Sen. JD Vance to the meeting of western PA evangelicals in Monroeville did not introduce him nor appear on stage with him Saturday. Later, Vance tried to meet with volunteers at a local Primanti’s, but was denied entry even though the campaign arranged for the volunteers to be there and paid for their food. (no paywall)
Vance carried on and later flew to a rally in Bucks County.
Get ready for the legal aftermath of what looks to be a very close presidential race here and across the country, cause that’s what the lawyers are anticipating.
“It seems to have crept into the mindset of elected officials that, we have the election, and then we got to go to court,” [attorney Matthew] Haverstick said.
Look Ahead
An interesting and adroit immigration ad now on the air in central PA from PA-10 Democratic nominee Janelle Stelson, a well-known TV personality who does not actually live in the district, is worth examining. I refer to it as her stealth immigration ad, as she hasn’t put this spot on her website as she’s done with her other TV ads.
Immigration is a key issue with GOP voters, second only to the economy. She and her team know that to win they need Republican votes in the 10th, which GOP incumbent Scott Perry won in 2022 with 53.8% of the vote. Trump won the 10th with 51.3% in 2020 though Gov. Josh Shapiro won the district in 2022.
Stelson narrates most of her ads, as she is obviously comfortable talking to camera.
In this immigration spot, she begins by saying too many Democrats deny there is a crisis at the border. That’s some political inoculation right there, designed to insulate her from coming GOP attacks on immigration.
Then she attacks Perry for voting against a border bill earlier in the summer, and says that “Putting politics ahead of our safety is gross.”
The word ‘gross’ rings odd here and is incongruous.
Click here to watch the ad. As it is in stealth mode, I had to record it with my phone when it ran…
Later she says her plan is to Deport Illegal Migrants (text on the screen) and her vo (voice over) says she would “kick them out.”
How many Democratic congressional candidates are running ads this year that say kick them (illegal immigrants) out of the country?
Mass deportation is a key plank in Trump’s immigration plan, and Harris has denigrated it non stop. (no paywall) So this is a sure play for GOP’ers, perhaps disillusioned with Perry, but still hesitant to vote for Democrat Stelson.
How worried is she about blow back from her Democratic base…perhaps a little, which is why her campaign didn’t upload it to her web site.
Stelson continues her vo by saying politicians in both parties have failed, while an accompanying graphic shows Perry and Cong. Marjorie Taylor Greene on the right side of the screen…along with Democratic Sen. Bernie Sanders of VT and now ex-Dem Sen. Bob Menedez of NJ, who resigned recently after being convicted of bribery, etc. on the left side.
To date Stelson has raised and spent more $ than Perry and thus has run more TV ads. In his one ad he speaks direct to camera about how both Dems and Republicans don’t like his votes in Congress, but that he wasn’t sent there to make friends.
As I was writing this segment over the weekend, up popped an ad from the House Freedom Caucus SuperPAC (Perry is a former chair of the House Freedom Caucus), hitting Stelson on…immigration.
Did you know?
Did you know that your name could lean Republican or Democratic? Using voter registration data from political data firm L2, this explainer from the Washington Post tells us why, often using examples from PA.
“Our initial tests showed that the most popular Republican-only names in the United States are Andy Byler, Steven Stoltzfus, Elmer Stoltzfus, Jacob Stoltzfus and Benuel Stoltzfus — each of which describes at least 37 registered Republicans and not a single Democrat…The Democratic mirror image of ‘Benuel Stoltzfus’ would have to be a name like Asia Williams, Aissatou Diallo, Mamadou Barry or Latoya Moore, each of which belongs to more than 90 Democrats and zero Republicans. The bluest surnames — Ndiaye, Jalloh, Diallo and Sesay — convey an even more West African flavor.”
Extras
A very special 100th birthday shout out to our most successful former president, Democrat Jimmy Carter, elected to a single term way back in 1976…when your PPD guide was just 13 years old.
The former GA governor carried 21 PA counties and beat appointed incumbent Republican Pres. Jerry Ford with 50.4% of the vote here...though Ford carried all 4 Philly suburban counties! Carter was the last of 5 successive Naval officers to hold the Presidency: JFK, LBJ, Richard Nixon, Ford and Carter. (no paywall)
And congrats as well to former state senator, and Brigadier General, John Pippy, on his appointment as Acting Adjutant General and head of the PA Department of Military and Veterans Affairs by Gov. Shapiro. (no paywall)
Remember the only VP debate is tonight (Tuesday) in NYC on CBS and streaming on Paramount+. The 90-minute debate begins at 9pm and is hosted by CBS Evening News anchor Norah O’Donnell and Face the Nation moderator Margaret Brennan. As of now, it’ll be the last debate involving the national ticket.
And on Thursday, the two candidates for U.S. Senate here, Democrat Bob Casey, Jr. and Republican Dave McCormick, will square off in their first, and possibly only, debate. Moderated by ABC27’s Dennis Owens, the debate will air across the state on the following stations in prime time from 8-9 pm:
PHL17 in Philadelphia
KDKA+ (Ch. 19) in Pittsburgh
ABC27 in Harrisburg
WBRE in Scranton
WTAJ in Johnstown
Fox66 in Erie
Thanks again to PMA for sponsoring today’s newsletter. If your organization is interested in sponsoring a future edition of PA Political Digest, just reply to this email and I will get you the details.