PA Political Digest -- PA Prez poll-a-palooza, Trump stock tumbles, Hillary out with another memoir and 5QW with a former GOP Cong...
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Welcome to the Friday End of Week post here at PA Political Digest (PPD) — I’m your guide, GOP political consultant Christopher Nicholas.
There’s no slow down in political news, that’s for sure.
For you today, we have:
Did you notice that some of the polls out this week show Kamala Harris got a debate bounce while others show a tie race here
In our 5 Questions With… segment we chat with former GOP Cong. Ryan Costello about Bitcoin and ChesCo politics
This Week in Pennsylvania talks with State Rep. Tom Mehaffie, who represents TMI, which might be reopening
In Extras, down at the bottom, Trump Technology stock continues to tank, Hillary gives us another memoir, more TV and Tucker Carlson & WaWa come to central PA.
Did you notice?
Did you notice that the national Teamsters Union PAC, called DRIVE, decided not to make an endorsement in the race for president, widely seen as a loss for Harris and good news for Donald Trump?
Reuters reports that a Teamster national poll of its members show 58% support Trump while 31% support Harris. So no national endorsement for either, although the Western PA Teamsters union did endorse Harris this week, as they said Trump “doesn't care about working people.”
The Suffolk Univ/USA TODAY poll here conducted a state-wide survey, and also concurrently surveyed two “bellwether” counties — Erie and Northampton.
Statewide, Harris led Trump 49-46% and she led by 4% in Erie County and by 5% in Northampton counties. In this poll Democratic Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. led GOP challenger Dave McCormick 47-43%.
Quinnipiac University dropped its PA poll this week as well, which showed Harris up 51-45% over Trump, a small increase in her lead since their August poll here. Their Senate race numbers had Casey up 52-43%, unchanged from that August poll.
The Washington Post poll came out yesterday and showed a tie race for president and a 1-point lead for Casey over McCormick: “One week after a debate that Pennsylvania voters widely say Harris won, she is favored by 48 percent of both likely voters and registered voters, while Trump is supported by 47 percent of voters in both categories…The state’s closely watched Senate race also appears to be tight. Democratic Sen. Bob Casey has the support of 47 percent of likely voters, while Republican challenger Dave McCormick is backed by 46 percent.”
The Inquirer/NYT/Sienna poll out yesterday showed Harris up 50-47%, buoyed by increased support for her in Philly. But, “Among Pennsylvania voters, Harris is viewed as ‘too liberal or progressive’ by more voters than those who view Trump as ‘too conservative.’” Their Senate poll numbers showed Casey up 49-40%.
So 5 of the last 6 polls here from last week until now show Casey under 50%…
Pew Research asked voters if they thought the VP candidates were qualified to be president: 30% said JD Vance was qualified, while 35% said the same of Tim Walz.
It’s not often that I get the chance to use the word unicameral…there is a GOP-backed effort to get Nebraska, home to the country’s only Unicameral Legislature (they have 49 senators and that’s it), to change back to a winner take all format for their presidential election. Trump will win the state handily, but could lose its 2nd Congressional District, which means that he would get only 4 Electoral votes there, not all 5. Every state, including PA, except for NE and ME use a winner take all approach in their presidential contest.
In ME it’s reversed, as Harris will win the state overall but Trump could triumph in the state’s sprawling, and even more rural, 2nd District and steal a vote from Harris. ME-2, represented by a Democrat, is the largest congressional district east of the Mississippi.
NE-2 is a competitive district, currently represented by a Republican, but Democrats think Harris can win this Omaha-centered seat and snatch away 1 Electoral vote from Trump. The 5 GOP members of their congressional delegation — 3 House members and their 2 Senators — all support a switch back to winner take all so the Cornhusker State can “speak with a united voice in presidential elections” and give 1 extra vote to Trump. (no paywall)
The scandal du jour with the NC GOP’s candidate for Governor, current Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, has the national media (rightly) asking whether it will hurt Trump’s chances there. (Robinson was way behind in his race before this scandal erupted, but the presidential race there is as tight as ours.)
So, if that’s true, could the opposite have been true here? If the Gov race tumult in NC could hurt Trump’s chances there, would Harris’ chances here have been helped by choosing our Gov. Josh Shapiro as her running mate? As you read above, our race is very tight, and say what you will about Tim Walz, but the Dems were going to win his state, MN, regardless…
Two more Special Elections were held this past Tuesday, in two Philly districts, the 195th and 201st. No surprise, Democrats held both seats, and maintain their 1-seat advantage in the lower Chamber.
5 Questions With…
Today we chat with Ryan Costello, who began his public service career as a Twp. Supervisor and later served as both Chester County Recorder of Deeds and Commissioner. In 2014 he won election to PA's 6th Congressional District, replacing Jim Gerlach, and served there for 2 terms.
While there he was ranked as the 9th most bipartisan member of the House. He graduated from Ursinus College and later Villanova Law School and is a visiting Lecturer at PPD's alma mater, American University.
This Week in Pennsylvania
The guest this week is Republican State Rep. Tom Mehaffie of Dauphin County, who represents the area where TMI is located. Their owner is looking to restart its Unit 1 reactor as demand for electricity continues to increase.
Media reports today say it will come back on line in 2028 and sell its power to Microsoft to help power their AI-based data centers. (no paywall)
Later in the show Brittany Crampsie and I argued curing vote by mail ballots and how important the economy is to voters decision making.
Watch TWIP Sunday across the state:
Philly Phl17 6:30am (Sat.)
Pittsburgh KDKA+ Ch. 19 Noon
Harrisburg ABC27News 10am
Scranton WBRE Ch. 28 11am
Johnstown WTAJ Ch. 10 6:30am
Erie JET-TV Ch. 24 10am
You may also stream the show here — the new show loads around Noon on Sundays.
Extras
DJT & HRC dropping: If you had invested $100 in Trump Media & Technology Group stock back in March when it debuted, it’s dropped so much now that it’d be worth just $24. For a bit less than that, about $21, you can pick up Hillary Clinton’s just-released 4th memoir that dropped this week: Something Lost, Something Gained: Reflections on Life, Love, and Liberty.
Long-time GOP observer and activist Guy Ciarrocchi has a column in RealClearPennsylvania.com about what he sees as Trump’s advantages here: renewed GOP emphasis on mail-in voting, his continued upswing with Black and Hispanic males, and the possibility of making further inroads with Jewish voters. (no paywall)
More TV 1: Last week Brittany Crampsie and I made it to the Univ. of Scranton to record an Election 2024 “On the Road” session for PCN-TV. The students asked terrific questions and we gave equally impressive answers, as did Borys Krawczeniuk of WVIA. It re-airs Sunday at 8 pm. Thanks to Francine Schertzer for hosting.
More TV 2: My other Democratic TV sparring partner, Danielle Gross, and I, were interviewed this week by Casey Briggs and his news crew from ABC-Australia. They visited several states in the US to scope out our presidential elections. Like the UK, they live in a Parliamentary Democracy, so our presidential system is foreign to them. (ABC-A is similar to our PBS.)
We spent a lot of time at the diner talking about $ in politics.
Former Fox News host Tucker Carlson is hosting JD Vance in Hershey tomorrow (Sat) as part of a political road show he’s conducting across the country. And Monday he will do the same in Reading with conspiracy theorist Alex Jones, the guy who was ordered by a court to pay $1.5 billion in damages to the families of Sandy Hook school shooting victims. (no paywall)
Walz visits the Lehigh Valley tomorrow (Sat) while Vance will make a stop the same day in Berks County. Trump will hold a rally in Indiana, Pa at IUP on Monday.
And finally, thanks to WaWa for opening a store here in Harrisburg, their furthest (so far) advance into central PA.