PA Political Digest -- Harris stayin' in PA until Tuesday's debate, two former GOP electeds oppose 45 & Fetterman is a mensch?
Sharp analysis of PA politics and campaigns writ large.
Welcome to our Friday End of Week post here at PPD — I’m your host, Republican political consultant Christopher Nicholas.
Another busy week in PA, the epicenter of the 2024 presidential race…
For you today, we have:
Did you notice that Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are readying for their first, and so far, only scheduled debate next Tuesday at the National Constitution Center in Philly…while two former GOP officials publicly announce their opposition to 45, in different ways
In our 5 Questions With… segment, we feature former GOP Senate and Lt. Gov. candidate (and Fetterman whisperer) Jeff Bartos
This Week in Pennsylvania has former PA Chamber President Gene Barr on to talk about Common Ground
In Extras, at the bottom, we look at an ad criticizing the PA Supreme Court re: Jim Crow, and a new poll from CNN shows the Casey-McCormick senate race deadlocked.
Did you notice?
Did you notice that VP Kamala Harris arrived in Pittsburgh last night, to prepare for her debate in Philly Tuesday, and will apparently stay in PA during that entire time? Ground zero folks…
Yes the Eagles play tonight (Friday) in Brazil, so the big anticipation now in Philly is for…the presidential debate at The National Constitution Center (NCC), hosted by ABC News, from 9-10:30 pm Tuesday.
We have peace in our time, or at least the best we seem able to do these days. — the two campaigns have agreed to terms for said debate.
The microphones for each candidate will be muted when they are not speaking...just as it was during the Hot Mess in Hotlanta debate in June, where Joe Biden ended up torching his own campaign. The Harris campaign wanted live or ‘hot’ mics the entire time, in the hopes of catching an outburst from Trump.
Other rules: no audience — 2 minutes to answer a question and 2 minutes for a rebuttal...those are l-o-n-g times, so there will be fewer actual questions, as each round of questioning will take longer to complete. Also there will be no opening statements, no candidate cross-questioning — but unlike in Atlanta, the press will be in the same room as the candidates.
Trump has only debated once this year, in Atlanta, while Harris has not engaged in a televised debate like this since her match-up with then VP Mike Pence back in 2020 in Salt Lake City…when she was still Sen. Harris. There they sat more than 10 feet apart with a plexiglass shield between them, a Covid-19 inspired precaution.
It’s tight quarters at the NCC’s Kimmel Theater and the candidates should be almost shoulder to shoulder, as Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama were in their 2008 Democratic primary debate there.
The NCC is a real gem, and if you haven’t walked through Signers’ Hall, with its “42 life-size bronze statues of the Founding Fathers,” you need to do so promptly. Learn more about the NCC here.
Trump came to Harrisburg Wednesday for what was billed as a Town Hall, where he took questions from the host, Sean Hannity of Fox News, and later a couple questions from members of the audience. The first part, all Trump, aired on Hannity’s Wednesday show, while the audience question segment aired on his Thursday show.
Not to be outdone, Democratic VP nominee Tim Walz touched down in Lancaster on Wednesday as well, did some campaigning and food shopping (whoopie pies at Cherry Hill Orchards) but wouldn’t take any questions from the media. Just call Walz the B-roll candidate.
CNN did another round of swing state polling and found the presidential race here…tied. 47%-all. What a shocker…In the other ‘Blue Wall’ states of WI and MI, Harris sports leads of 6% and 5%, respectively, both outside the margin of error.
Meanwhile, two prominent former Republican office holders announced separately they were against Trump this week.
During an interview on CNBC, former Sen. Pat Toomey said he would not be voting for Trump in November, or for Harris either. On their Squawk Box program, Toomey had to talk over the repeated interruptions of the host. As PoliticsPa.com recapped:
When asked by [Joe] Kernan if a vote not for Trump is a vote for Harris, Toomey said, “First of all, I voted for Donald Trump twice in 2016 and 2020 but when you lose an election and you try to overthrow the results so you can stay in power, you lose me. (no paywall)
“We need Republican control of the Senate and that’s essential. If the other side runs the table, then they will repeal the filibuster and they will be dragged by their left wing, which is clearly in charge now.”
He went on to criticize Harris for not trying to govern from the center by choosing Gov. Josh Shapiro as her running mate. Watch his 6-minute-ish interview here. (no paywall)
Toomey was one of 7 GOP senators who voted to impeach Trump during his 2nd impeachment trial in February of 2021.
Former GOP Cong. Liz Cheney of Wyoming, once the 3rd ranking member among House Republicans, made news this week for the timing of her endorsement of Kamala Harris. Some had expected it during the Democratic National Convention last month and when that didn’t happen, others thought it would occur later in September.
During a speech at Duke University earlier this week, she said: “I don’t believe that we have the luxury of writing in candidates' names, particularly in swing states. As a conservative, as someone who believes in and cares about the Constitution, I have thought deeply about this. And because of the danger that Donald Trump poses, not only am I not voting for Donald Trump, but I will be voting for Kamala Harris.” (no paywall)
The Trump campaign derided Cheney and her statement, as did Sen. JD Vance, the GOP’s VP nominee. In the House, Cheney had a 94% support score with Trump, and voted against both of his impeachments. She turned against him in the aftermath of Jan. 6.
So, two former Republican office holders demonstrating two different approaches to not supporting their party’s presidential candidate.
5 Questions With…
Today we have an extended chat with Montgomery County's Jeff Bartos, a real estate developer and business investor. In 2018 he was the GOP nominee for Lt. Gov. and in 2022 he ran for U.S. Senate. In between he served as Finance Chair for the PA GOP. During the pandemic he co-founded the Pennsylvania 30 Day Fund, which raised money to provide grants to small businesses to help them survive. In 10 months, the Fund raised more than $4 million and helped 1000+ business owners and their employees in all 67 counties.
This Week in Pennsylvania
This Week in PA talks with Gene Barr, former president of the PA Chamber of Business and Industry about his work with Common Ground, a non-partisan group striving to better our civil discourse. It’s focusing on AZ, OH, TX and PA.
Democratic analyst Danielle Gross and I talked Senate polling, Toomey’s voting pronouncement and the upcoming presidential debate.
Watch TWIP Sunday across the state:
Philly Phl17 1:30pm
Pittsburgh KDKA+ Ch. 19 Noon
Harrisburg ABC27News 10am
Scranton WBRE Ch. 28 11am
Johnstown WTAJ Ch. 10 6:30am
Erie JET-TV Ch. 24 10am
You may also stream the show here — the new show loads around Noon on Sundays.
Extras
A newish national voter rights group, the Fair Election Fund, is up with an ad criticizing the 5 Democrats on the PA Supreme Court for potentially upholding a lower court ruling barring independent Cornell West from the presidential ballot here. I saw the ad yesterday here in Harrisburg on a cable news channel.
A partial transcript:
“Denying a Black candidate ballot access? Disenfranchising thousands of Black voters?
This is the real Jim Crow 2.0. Call the Pennsylvania Supreme Court and tell them to protect Black voting rights.”
That new CNN poll shows a hard tie in the U.S. Senate race between Democratic incumbent Bob Casey, Jr. and Republican Dave McCormick. 46%-all. (no paywall) This is very good news for Team McCormick and bad news for Team Casey.
It’s much harder for an incumbent to climb from below 50%, to 50% or above, than it is for a challenger to do so. Voters know more, good or bad, about the incumbent, and generally, as is the case here, they have higher name ID than their challenger. At the end of a race, hard undecideds usually break away from the incumbent.
Casey has held state-wide office continually since he won the race for Auditor General with 56% over GOP State Rep. Bob Nyce in 1996. Casey ran for re-election to that office in 2000, and in 2004 ran for State Treasurer — in-between he ran unsuccessfully for Governor in the 2002 Democratic primary.
Quirk in PA election law: you cannot go from being Treasurer or Attorney General, to being Auditor General, as you would be in a position to then audit your own spending in your former office.
In 2006, Casey beat GOP incumbent Sen. Rick Santorum and won re-election easily in 2012 and 2018. So this is his 8th state-wide campaign in 28 years.
I’ve been saying for about a year now that this would be Casey’s toughest re-elect, and that come Oct. 1, he would find himself in an unusual position: locked in a tough re-election fight. Looks like October came early this year.
Now, it’s just one poll, and there is still a long way to go. The Senate race could be locking into a tandem with the presidential race here, which as noted above is also tied. Sort of the political version of drafting in car racing…
It’s rare to almost unheard of now for a state to vote for one party for president and the other for Senate. Maine did it in 2020, going for Biden but re-electing Republican Susan Collins to the Senate. That’s why the GOP is so bullish on winning the senate races in MT and WV.
But this is the second consecutive poll here (The Hill/Emerson College last week) showing Casey under 50% and in the mid-40’s. Remember that it’s always more important to track the incumbent’s ballot test support than the challenger’s…
Congrats to Andrew Lewis, the new president of the Commonwealth Foundation. The former 2-term GOP State Representative from Dauphin County officially takes over later this month.